Tuesday, November 11, 2014

A 27-year-old millionaire reveals how he built his wealth

Anton Ivanov makes his money from taking smart risk in investing in mutual fund stocks and property
He also did not take loan nor scholarship to study Instead he works first, then study. He was also working to earn some money while in high school and doing freelancing work to earn extra money.

Can our kids today emulate this type of independent self reliance self starter kids Parents in Singapore spoil their kids by spoon feeding and giving too much that they become a liability in society.
One classic example is our highest paid government in the world coupled with a too big force of civil servants that are less productive. They have a self deserving self demanding altitude instead of listening and doing things for the larger good of citizen which they are called to do.

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/27-year-old-millionaire-anton-ivanov-financessful-184823184.html

Anton Ivanov isn’t your average millionaire.
For starters, he’s barely 27 years old, he doesn’t work in Silicon Valley and he isn’t heir to a family fortune. He doesn’t live in a tiny house or get his food from a compost garden in his backyard, either.
Ivanov, who shares wealth-building tips on his blog, Financessful.com, made his million the old-fashioned way: He read books. He saved early and often. And he started planning his rise to millionaire status before most kids his age had their driver’s license.
“I’m a testament that if you want something bad enough and you keep working towards it ... you will get to where you want to go,” he says. "It was my habits and my principles that made me rich." 
Here’s how he did it.
Starting young
A decade ago, Ivanov was like any other teenager in the U.S.. He went to high school, earned decent grades, and held down a minimum-wage job at Subway. His parents, who had moved his family from their native Russia in 2002, both worked full time — his mother as an attorney, his father as an accountant. They lived a moderately middle-class life in the suburbs of San Diego.
But Ivanov realized early on that there was something different about his new neighbors — they all seemed a lot wealthier than his family. His parents were heavy spenders and harbored a deep mistrust of financial services. He couldn’t quite blame them — they had moved to the U.S. just a few years after living through one of the worst depressions in Russian history. But at the same time, he felt like he was missing something.
“In high school, there was pretty much no financial education and my parents wouldn’t talk to me about money,” he says. “Everything I learned about money I had to learn myself.”
He devoured books on wealth building. An early favorite was “Think and Grow Rich,” the 1937 classic by Napoleon Hill, which details strategies that can be used to overcome psychological barriers to wealth.
“That book was extremely influential,” Ivanov says. “It wasn’t a ‘how to get rich’ book but it gave me a vision and a mental system that I could use to achieve pretty much anything I wanted.”
At age 16, he had one goal in mind: become a millionaire.
College or career?


Anton opened a savings account at a local bank and socked away 100% of his Subway wages over the course of three years. By the time he graduated high school, he had saved about $10,000. He might have used the cash to cover part of his college tuition, but he knew it wouldn’t be enough to cover all of his expenses. He didn’t relish the thought of taking on tens of thousands of dollars in student loans to make up the difference, either.
"My family wasn't really prepared to pay for my college tuition, so I knew I would have to rely on at least some student loans to get me through, which I was very much against,” he says.
He had other ideas for kickstarting his career. While his friends signed up for college classes, Ivanov celebrated his 18th birthday by opening his first Roth IRA. After spending some time working (mostly administrative jobs near home), he decided to enlist in the U.S. Navy at age 20. He earned about $55,000 a year as an electronics technician and took distance learning classes to earn a Bachelor’s degree in information technology and programming. Uncle Sam picked up the tab for his tuition and fees.  
“When I compared [going to college] to joining the military, the latter seemed like a smarter idea because I would be earning income right away instead of waiting until I graduated,” he says. “And I could receive an education pretty much completely free, which I did.”
The ‘lazy’ investor
After Ivanov maxed out his Roth IRA (the annual contribution limit is $5,500), he opened up a small brokerage account with TradeKing. Years of careful research convinced him stock-picking wasn’t for him. His investing strategy was simple: focus on low-cost stock mutual funds that covered a variety of major asset classes and let the market do its job.
“It’s what I would call a lazy portfolio,” he says. After doing research, Ivanov decided to invest in seven asset classes: domestic, large-, mid-, and small-cap funds, emerging market funds, commodity funds, with a small chunk in bonds. Then he let it ride. He rebalances his portfolio once a year, if at all.  
A couple of years into his stint with the Navy, Ivanov faced his first true test as an amateur investor. By saving 60% of his Navy income and taking on freelance jobs on the side, he had been investing somewhere between $40,000 to $45,000 per year when the financial crisis hit in 2008.
He says he lost “a good amount,” but when the market sank he didn’t sell like many other investors did. “I powered through and when the market hit bottom, that’s when I tried to save and invest even more. To me, it was a no brainer,” he says.
Getting into the real estate game
Heavily influenced by books like “The Millionaire Real Estate Investor” and “The Millionaire Next Door,” Ivanov knew he wanted to start investing in real estate. His timing couldn’t have been better. The bust had essentially turned the housing market into the world’s biggest bargain bin.
In 2009, Ivanov put down $80,000 on a $400,000 condominium in San Diego, which he rents out for a $36,000 a year (he nets about $12,000 a year after making his mortgage payments). Today he estimates the property’s value is well over $600,000.  
Since then, Ivanov has added another property to his nascent housing empire. He purchased a $430,000 duplex earlier this year. He collects $21,000 a year in rent ($12,000 net after his mortgage is covered) renting out one of the apartments, while he and his fiancee live in the other.
“I believe in taking smart risks,” he says. “If you see an opportunity and you think it’s a good opportunity, you should take it and understand that you may be wrong and understand what the repercussions may be.”
He hopes to own at least 10 properties by the time he hits his 40s, but he’s in no rush. Once his housing expenses are taken care of, he puts all of his income — from his rental properties, his job and his freelance work — first into his retirement account, emergency savings account, and then into his taxable brokerage account. Once those goals are met, he contributes to a separate high-yield savings account, which he sets aside for future real estate purchases. You can see a full breakdown of Invanov's assets here, or check out the graphic below. 
Keeping it simple
Committing to saving 60% of his income was no small feat for Ivanov. The average American manages to save only than 5% of their income per year.
He swears by one basic savings strategy: automate everything and never rely on credit. 
“The day my salary gets deposited, I don’t even see that money,” he says. “It’s in and out of my account, which keeps me honest and keeps me on track.”
The emergency fund he’s been carefully maintaining since his days at Subway has come in handy as well. When both his parents unexpectedly passed away a few years ago, he was able to rely on that money to cover his airfare and funeral expenses. 
Fortunately, military life was the perfect environment for a single person looking to save. The bulk of his fixed expenses — housing, food, transportation, insurance — were covered. He set up automatic transfers for his savings and investment accounts and followed a strict schedule. First, he maxed out his annual Roth IRA contribution. Then he contributed the maximum to his annual Thrift Savings Plan (the federal employee version of the 401(k)). He split the remaining balance between his brokerage account and the savings fund he keeps for future real estate investments.
While he studied, he earned extra cash through one-off web design and programming gigs he got through freelance job websites like elance.com and odesk.com. He estimates these side jobs added another $15,000 to $20,000 to his annual income.
“Definitely being in the military helped a lot, but I also had a mature outlook on life,” he says. “Buying expensive things isn’t really fun for me. I realized those things don’t really make me happy.”
Reaching the $1 million mark
Ivanov left the Navy in 2013, but even after he moved back to San Diego, he kept up his frugal lifestyle. Eager to add to his investments, he made increasing his income a top priority and landed a full-time job working as a software developer and test engineer. Combined with the freelance work he continues in his free time, he earns just shy of $100,000 a year (not including income form his rental properties) and still saves at least half of his net income. 
Every expense — from his gym membership to his pending wedding in 2016 — is planned for and saved for well in advance. His detailed planning regimen is, he says, the key to his success so far.
“Usually, at the beginning of the year I look at my life for the next two to five years and I plan it out,” he says. “I write out any expense I’ll have that I won’t be able to cover using my paycheck and figure out how much I need to save each month to meet those goals by my deadline.”
Ivanov crossed the $1 million net worth mark just two months shy of his 27th birthday in June this year. He was thrilled to finally reach this milestone — but not surprised.  
“If you have a really strong desire in your head, you can power through any obstacle you may face,” he says. “I truly believed that when I was 16 and I believe it now.








Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Wall Street Traders Go All In For Poker

Dec. 7, 2009





As poker stars go, Burt Boutin isn't the best known. Still, the player nicknamed "Red Bull Burt" has won more than $2 million in World Series of Poker tournaments and has been a regular face on ESPN's featured tables.
Although it's not like this full-time Las Vegas resident doesn't have a regular job. He does: Professional money manager.
Boutin could, if he chose to, trade slow days tracking S&P blue chips in exchange for fast nights amassing chips at the tables. But he's not giving up his day job.
"I get burned out playing poker," Boutin, 42, admits. "It gets old – but the stock market is constantly challenging me."
In recent years, the financial industry and high-stakes professional poker realms have been increasingly intersecting, with a number of Wall Street figures crossing over into the WSOP scene. Online poker's popularity, meanwhile, has exploded into a $10 billion-plus industry despite government measures to curb Internet gambling.
Poker playing may well be today what day trading was in the 1990s. On any given day, at any given moment, hundreds of thousands of players are glued to their computer screens competing on virtual tables. "PokerStars" and "Full Tilt" are two of the more popular sites featuring more than 60,000 combined games between them that run nonstop and cost between $10 and $200 to buy into.
Online poker is extremely popular among Wall Street types.
"Poker is a trader's game," says Scott Redler, cofounder of T3, a Manhattan-based day trading firm. "Roulette, blackjack, those are based more on luck. But with a game like No Limit Texas Hold 'Em, you need patience and discipline, or in other words the exact same skills needed to be a good trader."
Boutin, a Philadelphia native, started out as a stock broker in the 1990s and made his way to the Las Vegas poker circuit in 2001.
"He's a sharp guy and a good card player but it was surprising to see how quickly he made it into the upper echelon of that world," says Burt's younger brother, Clinton Boutin, a financial consultant based in New York City.
The older Boutin began to snag some coveted WSOP event bracelets (awarded to winners of the many various poker tournament events that are affiliated with the WSOP beyond the signature $10,000 No-Limit Texas Hold 'Em Main Event) right around the time national interest in poker, in particular Texas Hold 'Em, began to surge.
The popularity of the 1998 movie "Rounders" coupled with ESPN's decision a few years later to regularly televise Vegas poker beyond the annual WSOP Main Event, transformed the game from smoky back rooms to a worldwide phenomenon.
Along the way, celebrity players, such as Johnny Chan, became household names. Chris Moneymaker, an online player, won the main WSOP event championship in 2003, giving hope to regular guys on home computer players everywhere.
"It's just gotten unbelievably competitive," Boutin says of the professional Vegas poker scene.
An exploding poker scene has created a whole new subculture in Vegas and in turn helped grow Boutin's other enterprise, managing money. His firm, Securities Services, has around $50 million in assets under advisory on behalf of some high-net worth clients, including several professional card players. Boutin, who employs three other financial reps besides himself, has a value-oriented trading style, leaning toward distressed companies coming out of bankruptcy.
Lately, he's had a lot of those to choose from. Boutin also says that during the worst period of the 2008 financial meltdown he was making money hand over fist shorting financials.
"Both pursuits are about calculating risk," Boutin says. "But playing poker professionally can be exhausting – sometimes you just go and go all night. It takes a toll." (He's known for gulping Red Bull -- hence his moniker).
The skill sets of a trader or portfolio manager match up well with those required to compete in poker – a penchant for risk taking and a dispassionate regard for large sums of money.
A New York City securities industry recruiting firm, The Options Group, recently was asked by an unnamed hedge fund to find candidates proficient at online poker, no financial experience needed. Daytrading titan Steve Schonfeld is also known to consider card playing savvy when evaluating new trading candidates.
In general, money managers have tended to distance what it is they do from gambling, insisting that stock selection is far less a crap shoot than, say, shooting craps. This is particularly so, it is widely believed in the industry, if there's some form of a research-driven edge.
It's recognized even among gamblers that only a small percentage of them can consistently turn a profit. However, poker enthusiasts can be sensitive to perceptions that chance more than skill underpins what they do. And as the M.I.T. students featured in Ben Mezrich's book "Bringing Down the House" showed, there is an edge to be had at some games when a little intellectual firepower is brought to bear.
A Wall Street background can be an edge in the high-stakes poker circles.
Steven Begleiter, a Bear Stearns trader prior to the firm's demise, pulled down $1.6 million earlier this year when he finished in sixth place in the main WSOP event. Hedge fund heavyweight David Einhorn, who famously shorted Lehman Brothers into oblivion last summer, finished 18th in 2006. Aaron Brown, who works as a risk manager at mammoth Greenwich, Connecticut hedge fund AQR, was a former professional poker player.
"If you love trading, if you are good at it, then odds are you also love poker," says one Wall Street trader who enjoys playing in live games. "In the same way, if some young kid proves themselves really adept at playing poker online where it has become so competitive then chances are he might be well suited for becoming a trader."
In New York City, there's an unofficial Wall Street poker circuit, an ongoing series of semi regular games held almost every night of the week attended mainly by bank and hedge fund traders.
Taking risk and assessing information quickly are elements of both trading and poker playing. Before a trader moves on a stock he might have to weigh the last trade, insider purchases or sale, a rumor on the Street, a news story, and so on within minutes or seconds. A skilled card player, similarly, looks at the odds of his hand being the winner, his opponents' prior hands and actions, his last bet and the look on an opponent's face.
Of course, playing online, where reading a face is impossible, requires a distinctly different approach, says one online poker enthusiast.
"Playing online poker is all about paying attention to the betting patterns of the people you are playing, and you get to know them by their alias," says Lee, a 42-year-old Manhattan real estate agent.
Having worked as a Catskills cabana boy growing up, Lee was around poker from a young age. But in 2004 Lee says he began to play nightly and on weekends to supplement his income (and because, he admits, is hooked). While he doesn't consider himself a pro he does view poker as a "part time job," and claims to pull down, in a good month, $3,000, with his worst month ever costing him $500.
Lee says he plays on PokerStars, mainly at $50 tables, accruing enough to buy into the nightly $100,000 tournament that carries a $162 buy in. Lee has played in PokerStars' weekly "Sunday Million" Sunday night game, once placing 200th out of around 8,000 people.
"Online poker is something anyone can do so it has become super, super competitive," one trader explains. "Trading is harder to break into. Anyone with a computer can get into online poker."
Says Boutin, "The way to get good at poker is just to play, constantly."
And to be a good money manager?
"You have to be able to take risk."





Thursday, October 23, 2014

Peter Jones How we made our Millions - Full (Michelle Mone, Richard Reed)

 

Dragons' Den star Peter Jones meets two of the country's most well known and successful entrepreneurs to get into the DNA of what made them millionaires. 


Take a look at this video on YouTube: if you run a business or aspire to, this is great.  


Richard Reed - Smoothie business


Michelle Mone - MJM International - Bra business



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=foWMmY3xSuk

Feel free to give your comment


Commodities Will Be Ugly Until At Least 2020

This is not news. Most professionals already know commodities and real estates have peaked since 2011 but it is worthy to take note of even know....hmm!! if you are still thinking to buying property or gold

http://www.businessinsider.sg/paul-tudor-jones-and-druckenmiller-panel-2014-10/#.VEjbICKUes-

PAUL TUDOR JONES: Commodities Will Be Ugly Until At Least 2020

Paul Tudor Jones 60 Minutes
Paul Tudor Jones II
Commodity prices have been falling around the world, and Paul Tudor Jones II thinks this trend will play out through 2020.
Yesterday, the legendary macro trader was interviewed by another legend, Stanley Druckenmiller, at the Robin Hood Investors Conference.
The conference, which is stacked with hedge fund heavyweights, is off limits to the press. We have a source inside who was kind enough to share his notes from yesterday evening’s panel.
According to our source’s notes, Jones said that we are in the downturn for the current commodities cycle. Having reached the peak of the cycle a few years ago, we’re still heading down to the bottom.
Jones explained that these commodity cycles run in roughly 30-year cycles between peaks. 1999 was a valley and April 2011 was the peak. He said this cycle will play out through the downside through 2020 or so, but it will be net positive for the U.S. economy.  
Jones also touched on a number of other macro topics during the discussion. 
Jones talked about deleveraging in China and how that will be negative for the financial sector as well as commodities there. He basically said that there’s a credit bubble and the “the piper will be paid and the bubble will burst.”
He said in about 2029 the U.S. will breach Greek debt levels, according to our source.
He also talked about Japan and Japanese Government Bonds, which are up over 30% with extremely low trading volume. He’s wondering when will the yields pop. 
Later on in the panel, Jones said that the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will keep cutting rates. He said the yen needs to depreciate 15% per year to increase inflation 1 to 1.5%.
His trade is get long the dollar versus the yen. According to our source’s the notes, the dollar rally versus other currencies may have run its course.
Yesterday’s panel fell on the anniversary of Black Monday— a market crash event that Jones famously predicted back in 1987 and also netted him millions.
According to our source’s notes, Druckenmiller asked Jones about the similarities between 1987 and what’s going on now. Jones explained that the 1987 crash was derivative inspired. The S&P futures were down 33% before the open on that Monday.
He also said that 1987 is dissimilar to what’s going on now. He said we have a bubble now and he’s not sure whether it’s in the stock market, according to our source’s notes. 
As for last week’s market activity, Jones said that on Thursday we saw a five standard deviation (that’s a volatility measure) kind of movement in one day. He said we will see this kind of volatility in the future.
Speaking of the volatility of the last two to three weeks, he said that was due to position clearing and it’s similar October 1998. (Our source pointed out that’s when the Long Term Capital Management event happened. Jones didn’t explicitly say that, though.) 


Sunday, October 12, 2014

Property market Stocks and Reits - What now?


Let's analyze Capitaland buyout of Capitalmall Asia

Capitaland Asia being offered $2.35


However the buyout is positive for CMA investor as it is liken to being offered a 20% premium for payout. The $2.35 payout price is about 20% premium to book value.

CMA should be trading at price weakness going forward given the negative prospect of property market in Singapore, Hongkong and China.
It is a good business move as with an IPO price of $2.12 a share in late 2009, privatising CMA with an offer price of $2.35 means the borrow cost from public is only 1.05% per annum over a 4 and a half year period.

I see it that the Parent company is trying to consolidate all investments as the property market is going through a tough challenging times going forward whether here or China and Hongkong.

However for the Capitaland investors, it is like they are forced to pay 20% or more to ingest CMA at a time when they may be able to buy from open market going forward, probably at 20% cheaper. So all in they are paying as much as 50% more for CMA which means Capitaland share value is diluted by up to 20% in real term as of now.

Therefore it is an avoid on buy for Capitaland for now If you discount the share price by 30% A fair price to buy is about $2

With US economy recovering and interest rate moving up in the next decade, the cost of borrowing at low% is over. The borrowing cost will eat into profit margin of every business, more so for Reits and Property.

The dividend payout for Reits is likely to be adjusted down and with share price expected to be trading on weakness, buying or holding Reits going forward is not a good investment proxy. Moreover property may have peaked since 2012 and have entered into a prolonged bear phase for the next decade.

Technically on all fronts Singapore, Hongkong and China have already entered into a prolonged slow economic growth. Layoffs worldwide are eccelerating at a faster pace since 2013.


What Warren Buffett once said of IPOs

The idea that an IPO, offered with significant commissions, with all kinds of publicity, with the seller electing the time to sell, is going to be the single best investment that I can make in the world among thousands of choices is mathematically impossible.
Buffet is the reason why I have not bought any initial public offerings in many years. If I do it is more for punting than holding for investment.






Friday, October 10, 2014

Mystery Man Who Moves Japanese Markets Made More Than 1 Million Trades

By Jason Clenfield
September 25, 2014 5:00 PM EDT


CIS shows how he tracks highly traded issues on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Those are not his screens, however. No one has seen him work. Photographer: Shiho Fukada/Bloomberg Markets.

It was six minutes after the opening bell on Feb. 4, and dozens of big-name stocks were still untraded in Tokyo. Telecommunications giant SoftBank Corp. was among those that hadn’t budged. The offer price fell 5 percent, then more, and still there were no takers.
Then an order was filled: 300,000 shares at 6,714 yen -- worth just over 2 billion yen, or almost $20 million. Other buyers followed, momentum built, and the stock ended the day as one of only two gainers in the Nikkei 225 Stock Average.
The man who made the market for SoftBank that winter morning was sitting in pajamas in a bedroom cluttered with comic books. He was leaning into the glare of four computer screens and munching a carrot -- something to calm his stomach.
Betting on rebounds was dangerous, but he’d watched SoftBank lose a fifth of its value over nine days, and a drop in U.S. markets overnight had driven the shares even lower. The odds were tilting further in favor of a bounce, by his reckoning. He decided to pull the trigger, rat-a-tat-tatting the orders in, Bloomberg Markets magazine will report in its November issue.
Ninety minutes later, he cashed out with a profit of 140.6 million yen. Then it was on to the next trade for the former video game champion and pachinko gambler who goes by the name CIS. The 35-year-old day trader says he made 6 billion yen, after taxes, betting on Japanese stocks last year.
Big Numbers
During a decade of day trading, having started more or less from scratch, CIS has amassed a fortune that he says now exceeds 16 billion yen. In the process, he has become a cult figure among Japanese day traders, a tight circle of self-taught professionals who take pride in working one of the world’s toughest markets. CIS has been the subject of much chatter and speculation. A Wikipedia page attempts to track his investment results.
Only a handful of his peers know his real name, and no one has watched him work. CIS didn’t offer a complete accounting of his investing returns and his wealth for this story, and some of his claims can’t be verified.
He did show multiple 2014 statements from one of his many brokerage accounts, in addition to his 2013 tax return. Those brokerage statements, from SBI Holdings Inc., showed liquid assets ranging from 4.4 billion yen to 4.8 billion yen. His tax return showed he traded 1.7 trillion yen worth of Japanese equities in 2013 -- about half of 1 percent of the value of all the share transactions done by individuals on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. On his busiest day, he says, he bought and sold 70 billion yen worth of stocks.
Gaming Days
CIS, pronounced sis, means death in classical Japanese. The nickname is a holdover from his gaming days, when he used to crush foes in virtual wrestling rings and online fantasy worlds. “Games taught me to think fast and stay calm,” he said over tea at Tokyo’s Hotel Grand Palace a few days after the SoftBank trade.
Rail thin, with a shaggy mop of hair, he showed up in a gray sweater, jeans and sneakers. No one would have taken him for a multimillionaire.
CIS wants people to know what he’s accomplished; he just doesn’t want them to know who he is. Even after six sit-down interviews over many months, CIS asked not to be named for this story. Married with three kids, he says he’s worried about being targeted for robbery or extortion.
Last year was a very good year to be a Japanese day trader. Pushed by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the Bank of Japan flooded the market with cash via an asset-buying program. On top of that, a relaxation of borrowing limits allowed people trading on margin to roll over loans the instant they exited a position. Taken together, the two made for a potent cocktail.
Super Active
The benchmark Nikkei 225 jumped more than 56 percent in 2013, the most in four decades. The Mothers Index of small-cap stocks, a magnet for retail investors, rocketed up 137 percent. The number of shares traded by individual investors more than doubled, according to the TSE.
It wasn’t because more people were pumping retirement money into the market, though Abe’s policies were meant to encourage that. “It was super, super-active day traders,” says Akira Warita, managing director at Matsui Securities Co. One percent of the online brokerage’s clients accounted for 70 percent of its turnover during the last three months of 2013. The 397 people who made 50 or more trades a day were responsible for more than half of the brokerage’s margin transactions. The most-leveraged trader used a cash deposit of 20 million yen to buy and sell 4 billion yen worth of equities in a single day, according to Warita.
J-Com Shock
Japanese day traders have gotten so big, the market can no longer ignore them or the huge price swings they amplify, says David Baran, co–chief executive officer of Symphony Financial Partners, a $400 million Tokyo hedge-fund firm.
“I’ve been trading Japanese stocks for almost 30 years, and I’ve been through periods of extreme volatility, but I’ve never seen anything like what we had last year,” Baran says.
CIS’s first big score came on Dec. 8, 2005, when someone at Mizuho Securities Co. made a costly typing mistake. Rather than selling a single share of a small recruiting company called J-Com Co. for 610,000 yen, Mizuho offered 610,000 shares for 1 yen each. The order was for 42 times the number of outstanding shares. CIS saw it had to be an error and was among a small number of day traders and institutional investors who pounced. CIS says he bought 3,300 shares, about a quarter of the actual total, at the limit-low price.
By the time everything was sorted out, Mizuho’s quarterly profit was gone and CIS was, as he tells it, 600 million yen richer. (Another day trader, Takashi Kotegawa, who’s known as BNF, made more than 2 billion yen, according to a Bloomberg News report at the time. Efforts to reach Kotegawa were unsuccessful, and it isn’t clear whether he still trades.)
10 Minutes
Even now, the J-Com trade ranks as the best 10 minutes of CIS’s professional life. But he didn’t celebrate. He didn’t even pause. Instead, he shifted his winnings into Nintendo Co., reasoning that whatever had happened that morning, lawsuits were bound to fly, and it would be harder to seize his gains if they weren’t in cash. Then he shorted the brokerages. Somebody had screwed up, and financial shares would probably get punished for it.
Several fan blogs devoted to CIS sprang up after the J-Com trade, one called CIS Mania. That site is no longer around, but in the summer of 2013, someone authored a Wikipedia page about CIS. It’s complete with a bar chart purporting to show how his fortune snowballed, starting with 1 million yen -- about $10,000 -- in 2000. “The numbers are a little off,” CIS says. “But the basic idea is right.”
Cheap Wine
Early in his career, CIS made a name for himself trash talking on 2channel, Japan’s most heavily visited online bulletin board. He became notorious for such lines as “Not even Goldman Sachs can beat me in a trade” and “Excuse me while I go flush some cheap wine that only cost me 800,000 yen.”
In 2011, CIS made his only TV appearance, on a popular variety show called Waratte Iitomo, or It’s OK to Laugh. (The show recently went off the air after a 32-year run.) He came onto the set with a translucent box over his head and spoke through a voice modulator to maintain his anonymity.
“Who are you?” the host asked. “I’m a man who made 10 billion yen day trading,” CIS answered, and the crowd went wild. (At the time, his fortune was just over 9 billion yen, CIS says, but producers told him to round up.) To help support his claim, producers held up an enlarged statement from one of CIS’s bank accounts, showing a balance of 1,269,223,316 yen.
Tight Crew
The average banker might not have known whom he was watching on TV, but day traders did. “The guy’s a star,” says Naoki Murakami, a trader who blogs under the name Murayan. “Everybody read his 2channel posts. Some people might not have liked them, but most people knew he was kidding.”
A careful chronicler of his own trades who spares himself no embarrassment in posting his results online, Murakami has become a minor celebrity in his own right and gets paid by Matsui Securities and other brokerages to speak at investor conferences.
He shares chat room friends with CIS, the kind of connection that’s typical in Japan’s day-trader world, where everyone knows everyone through several degrees of chat room separation. (Some even vacation together; Murakami and three other traders went to see Canada’s northern lights a year ago. It was Bali the spring before that.)
In person, it’s not easy to square CIS with the bravado of his online alter ego -- or his wealth. Pale from hours staring into computer monitors, he looks like the video game junkie he once was. Stress has given him chronic stomach pain and a dusting of gray at the temples.
No Bling
CIS’s friends are primarily other traders, people like Kenji Uemura, a former Sony Corp. engineer and the author of a how-to book on trading now in its fifth printing. A 39-year-old with an Elvis-style hairdo and sideburns, Uemura says he has put together 300 million yen in a decade of trading, and like CIS, he doesn’t go in for bling.
“The kind of person who wastes money on that stuff would never have made it this far,” says Uemura, whom traders know as Kemu. “Self-control is so important. You have to conserve your assets. That’s what insulates you from the downturns and gives you the ammunition to make money.”
Skipping class in high school to play pachinko, a hybrid of slots and pinball, CIS discovered he had a talent for winning games. At 15, he says, he could earn 400,000 yen a month gambling. One secret was identifying the machines most likely to give bigger payouts. Another was being able to endure 13 hours at a time in smoke-filled and deafeningly loud pachinko parlors; he had to play thousands of consecutive games to take advantage of the odds.
Stockpiles
CIS says he barely got his degree in mechanical engineering, having devoted most of college to the fantasy role-playing game Ultima Online. Holed up in his bedroom, he spent days on end roaming the game’s virtual universe, stockpiling weapons, treasure and food. He calls this an early exercise in building and protecting assets.
Wicked keyboard skills were a must. He memorized more than 100 key-stroke shortcuts -- control-A to guzzle a healing potion or shift-S to draw a sword, for example -- and he could dance between them without taking his eyes off the screen. “Some people can do it, some can’t,” he says with a shrug. But the game taught a bigger lesson: when to cut and run.
“I was a pretty confident player, but just like in the real world, the more opponents you have, the worse your chances are,” he says. “You lose nothing by running.”
That’s how he now plays the stock market. CIS says he bets wrong four out of 10 times. The trick is to sell the losers fast while letting the winners ride. For him, a well-played stop-loss is just about the most beautiful trade there is.
Thing of Beauty
That’s why he says a less flashy SoftBank trade than the one from February may turn out to be his best move of 2014. On the first trading day of the year, he dumped 4.5 billion yen worth of SoftBank shares. He took a 2.5 percent loss on the day but got out with a 650 million yen profit on the position, which he’d built since mid-October. SoftBank slid 18 percent in the month after he sold, and weeks later, regulatory filings showed why: Capital Group Cos., the giant U.S. fund manager, had been offloading the shares.
Stocks entered the picture for CIS when he was in his early 20s and working as a designer of industrial shock absorbers at a small manufacturer. He began by betting on what he thought were undervalued companies, and he lost money.
He found success after a friend gave him a piece of advice: Forget the fundamentals. CIS doesn’t subscribe to the Nikkei or any other newspaper. Nor does he scrutinize earnings reports or parse central bank statements or spend much time looking at moving averages or other price chart patterns normally associated with technical trading.
One Rule
Instead, he keeps his ears open in chat rooms and his eyes glued to bid-ask screens, on which he monitors the market’s appetite for its 300 most heavily traded stocks. If there’s one basic principle, he says—repeatedly and slowly, as if instructing a child—it is this: “Buy stocks that are being bought, and sell stocks that are being sold.”
That’s more profound than it sounds, according to Hersh Shefrin, professor of behavioral finance at Santa Clara University in California and author of Beyond Greed and Fear, a 2007 book about the role of psychology in investing. The human mind is hard-wired to bet on reversals, Shefrin says.
It’s a phenomenon called the gambler’s fallacy. At a craps table, for example, players tend to shift their bets toward numbers that haven’t come up, even though the odds don’t change with each roll of the dice. In the same way, even the savviest investor has a built-in bias for buying when stocks fall and selling when they go up.
Momentum
“If you can get yourself out of that mindset and bet against the crowd, who act instinctively, then you have an opportunity to make money,” Shefrin says.
Two years after learning to follow the momentum, CIS says, he’d made 80 million yen day trading on the sly at the office. In late 2003, he quit the salaryman life to work the market full time.
Since then, there have been more than a million trades, CIS estimates. Early on, he held most positions for just seconds at a time, making hundreds of moves each day. Now that he has more money, there’s no choice but to hold positions longer, because shifting such large sums in and out of the market influences prices.
Toward the end of a slow day in early July, CIS e-mailed a screen shot of his brokerage account at SBI Holdings. It was a snapshot that looked pretty much like others he’d shown in person over the course of the year. Unrealized gains on the day were in red: 200 million yen.
Mah-Jongg
The holdings: 254,000 shares of Toyota Motor Corp., 4.2 million shares of Nomura Holdings Inc. and 6 million shares of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., among a dozen other positions. It was a 13.2 billion yen portfolio, financed with 4.4 billion yen in cash, that would probably all be liquidated within days.
One thing CIS wouldn’t sell was a 100-share stake in Yoshinoya Holdings Co., operator of a fast-food chain beloved by cash-strapped college kids. It’s a “little keepsake,” he explained as he speed walked to a mah-jongg parlor in the Roppongi nightlife district, where he has a regular 3 p.m. game with trader buddies.
When CIS isn’t betting on stocks, he’s gaming elsewhere. He plays low-stakes mah-jongg most afternoons after the market closes and is ranked in the top 99.94 percentile of 3 million players on a site called Ten Hou, where he plays under the name CISCIS.
Card Counter
And if it’s not mah-jongg, it’s poker or blackjack, online and sometimes in person. He says he was banned from South Korea’s Walker Hills Casino in 2011 for counting cards. (Walker Hills declined to comment on individual clients.)
Most of CIS’s wealth is in stocks and cash. He also holds corporate bonds and gold, he says, and has stakes in three small businesses. Tax records show he owns two apartment buildings, the larger of which—a modernist cube in central Tokyo with a French bar on the ground floor—could easily be worth the 700 million yen CIS says he paid for it, according to an estimate from Tokyo real estate consultant Mount J Partners.
Many of the day traders in CIS’s circle can be considered wealthy, especially after the bull market of 2013. But CIS is on a different level. How he managed to build a fortune of such size is a subject of much speculation among his peers.
A Machine
It could be an ability to spot weaknesses in trading algorithms used by the big banks, Murakami says. Or maybe it’s the simple fact that he doesn’t get rattled, says Masahiro Kawata, a trader who plays mah-jongg with CIS. Kawata designed the trading interface that most serious Japanese day traders use to shave valuable seconds off the order process; it’s called T-Plus Plus Speedy Stock Order Tool. Kawata says his friend “can think like a machine.”
Then there’s his single-mindedness. CIS doesn’t seem to regard trading, or amassing money, as a means to anything. Trading is the point. Winning is the point.
With the euphoria over Abe’s policies fading and Japan’s market returning to form -- the Nikkei dropped about 5 percent in the first eight months of 2014 -- many day traders who struck it rich last year are getting out. Who wants to spend day after day glued to computer monitors if you don’t have to?
It’s not a sentiment CIS shares. As of late summer, he was flat for 2014. Nevertheless, he thinks he can hit 100 billion yen in assets by the time he’s 60.
“If you just consider compound interest, it should be pretty easy,” he says. “But who knows? Maybe I’ll get an ulcer and have to stop. Or maybe I’ll find something more fun to do.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Clenfield in Tokyo at jclenfield@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Daniel Ferrara at dferrara5@bloomberg.net; Peter Elstrom at pelstrom@bloomberg.net Frank Longid

Thursday, October 9, 2014

US Market - What now?

 October 9, 2014


US Market - What now?


     US market dropped 335 points, Dow Jones is now 16,659 points , is the first time since June 2013  
This is due to a five reasons;  

     1)  International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered global Growth this year and Next year, citing Japan, Latin America and Europe's weak economic growth. IMF expects the global growth of only 3.3 percent this year, lower than the July forecast .

     2) Global Growth concerns. Wall Street worried about the global economic slowdown, espicially in the euro Zone will deteriorate further, dragging down demand for products and services around the world, and the damage to the American Company's profitability. 

Wall Street's major Indexes Critical Level, such as S&P 500 stocks index close down 40.68 points, or 2.1 percent, to 1928.21. 

   3) The power of the European Central Bank is questionable. Back in July 2012, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi spoken on the global market, he basically said the ECB 'will do whatever it takes" to keep the eurozone intact. But Drudge actually frightened today's market, he believes the euro zone economy is slowing and warned that policy makers must raise inflation from "low" level. The worry is that the ECB is behind the so-called curve. Wall Street hopes to launch a US-style sovereign bond-buying program to stimulate demand, and the euro-zone economy. However, Draghi has not made a positive move. 

   4) Commodity and energy stocks had been sold down alot lately, West Texas Intermediate crude oil per barrel has sunk below the level of $ 90, a level not seen in the last two years. Texas Intermediate crude oil per barrel fell nearly 2 percent, $ 85.87 a barrel today

5) The Market Selling is due to the market has peaked, tired and overbought and there is a need to reduce the excess foam. Standard & Poor's 500 index is celebrating its three years official correction, as from the recent highs of 10 percent. At the same time, three Fridays ago, e-Commerce ALIBABA ushered in an Initial public Offering. 


      Watch this month after the Company reporting Earnings. This will decide on the four Quarters Stock Market whether it is good or bad. Should also concerned about the very strong support of the Dow Jones which is at 16,600 points.