Sunday, July 6, 2014

Conflict Management and Negotiation Western Way!

 


If everyone agreed on everything all the time, the world would be beautiful and peaceful without conflict. No conflict would be great, but it would be very boring, because nothing would ever change. We need conflicting ideas in order to do the thinking to move forward. Truthfully, we need conflict with existing view of the world in order to learn and be creative. We need conflict with another person in order to deepen our relationship. However, it does not mean yelling, fighting, etc.

To be successful in mastering the conflict and negotiation skills, we need to communicate more effectively in "charged" situations. And then go towards the conflict and move through it to the next level. As a manager, I bound to encounter differences either within my team or between you and a client. These situations can be emotionally taxing, but if we have a better understanding of how to work through them and even learn and grow from them, conflicts can actually make you better at your job. In fact, when handled well, conflict forces us to be creative problem-solvers, to avoid mistakes, and to learn how to benefit from individual’s differences, all while challenging us to broaden our skills. Conflict gets nasty, gets personal, leads to more conflict, and harms working relationships. Fortunately, now we can prevent disagreements from learning about how different people deal with conflict in this course. 

Understanding the types of behavior that occur during conflict, it can help us to get the most out of it. The types of conflict behavior are:

1. Competing: you have a high concern for personal goals and low concern for relationships.
2. Collaborative: you’re interested in a mutually satisfactory solution.
3. Compromising: you’re willing to give something up if they are.
4. Avoiding: you delay and ignore the conflict, hoping it will resolve itself.
5. Accommodating: you’re willing to make a sacrifice to avoid confrontation.

Using the points from the book, “Crucial Conversation, “ we can apply these skills:

• Work on Me First
• Focus on What You Want
• Learn to Look
• Make It Safe
• Apologize When Appropriate

Further, we can practice the four principles of effective negotiation from the book, “Getting to Yes.” It is a highly effective way of reaching good agreements. The process of principled negotiation can be used effectively on almost any type of dispute.

1) Separate the people from the problem
2) Focus on interests rather than positions
3) Generate a variety of options before settling on an agreement
4) Insist that the agreement be based on objective criteria

It is not easy to resolve conflict in any relationship. Sometimes in conflict it is important to step back, or move away from the emotional attachments that go with a disagreement. Removing the self emotionally helps to avoid trading personal attacks. This approach makes it possible to approach the situation in a neutral way, such as: “We have a problem here that isn’t working for us. We need to work together to develop options.” Being committed to the relationship is important in conflict resolution. If we really care about a person being right is less important than maintaining relations. That is the desire to clear up misunderstanding, develop understanding and find a resolution that works for all parties involved. How we communicate in conflicts can affect the outcome. 

Clearly conflict resolution is a complicated skill. Most people can benefit from developing the skills of stepping back from the conflict. Practicing these skills will enhance our communication style. Effective solutions and better relationships are achieved in this manner.

Thursday, July 3, 2014

Can You Trust Buying Bank Of America

BAC is a buy now


Summary

Positive

Improved outlook for fixed income trading revenue.  


An improved M&A environment, higher interest rates, an improving economy, and finally, a Republican sweep in November could prove a boon for the entire banking sector


The chart looks unappealing from the technical side - the moving averages are moving in the wrong way from each other, the bank hasn't been able to top major resistance at $16.25, and the bank looks to be in a mid- to long-term downtrend. However, for the mid-to long-term run, the technicals will eventually give way to a rosier picture for the bank.

An upgrade over at Deutsche Bank, who raised their outlook on the bank to BUY, with a price target of $18.

Negative

  • One, the bank reported a $4 billion error in its books to the Federal Reserve. As a consequence, it had to suspend a share buyback and its planned spike in quarterly dividends.
  • Two, the bank has faced investigation into foreign-exchange trading violations.
  • Three, the bank had to agree to pay $9.5 billion in fines to the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The civil lawsuit alleged that the bank had defrauded Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC) by misrepresenting $57.5 billion worth of mortgage securities, an event that precipitated the financial crisis.

Bad Outlook For BAC Investors

Bank of America's stock price in 1994, 20 years ago, at ~$14 is nearly the same as it was at the close on June 30th, $15.37.

I believe Bank of America is an attractive long-term purchase at these levels, and I remain bullish on the bank. My money can ride with Buffett's any day of the week. 
Target $25 -$35 in 2017
Best of luck to all investors.

Monday, June 23, 2014

22 June 2014

Chinese (COSCO) putting wind in sails of Greek recovery
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/19/china-piraeus-greece-cosco-thessaloniki-railways

President of the Union of Greek Shipowners Theodore Veniamis at Cosco's stand at a shippping fair


Captain Fu Cheng Qiu sums up the magnitude of China's interest in Greece.
"No other country in Europe offers such potential," he says as cranes in constant motion move containers from ship to dock outside. "We believe that Piraeus can be the biggest port in the Mediterranean and one of the most important distribution centres because it is the gateway to the Balkans and southern Europe."
Chinese carrier Cosco is transforming Piraeus – and has eyes on  Thessaloniki
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_19/06/2014_540675

China, the world’s biggest shipbuilder, currently has 192 orders from Greek shipping companies according to UK-based sector observer Fairplay.
Korean shipyards follow with 189 new buildings, while Japan has 27.

“Greeks are the most important clients for China. Greece is the biggest market,” said Bill Chen, vice-president of Veritas classification bureau in Shanghai.

Greece has one of the world’s largest shipping sectors, accounting for more than 16 per cent of the global fleet and close to half of the tonnage carried by European vessels. In total the Mediterranean country has 3,669 ocean-going ships of over 1,000 gross tonnage.

“It is good for both (Greece and China) to develop our industry and get more efficient... (Chinese) shipyards have a lot of capacity,” said Jack Chou of Shanghai-based Merchant Ship Design and Research. [AFP]





FINANCIALS

The Group's turnover was $3.5 billion, lower by 6% from $3.7 billion for the year before. Gross profit amounted to $321 million, from $485 million in 2012. Net profit attributable to shareholders was $30.6 million, a decline of 71%. Diluted earnings per share was 1.4 cents. Group net asset value per ordinary share as at 31 December 2013 was 59.7 cents.

Offshore Marine Engineering Continues To Be Major Contributor

Despite the difficult market conditions, COSCO secured US$3 billion worth of contracts in 2013 compared to US$2 billion for the year earlier, including repeat orders for the offshore marine segment. The Group's order book as at 31 December 2013 stood at US$7.8 billion.


COMMENTS

Shipping has been in the slump from 2008 to 2013 and 2014 shall be seen as the turning point. Improved orders, expanding markets in Greece are positive for Cosco

Earning per share as at 31 December 2013 was 1.4 cts. Increased in orders of 60% can be seen from 2012 to 2013

The share price is at PE 50 times Forward PE in 2017 shall be 12 times

Forecast share price in 2015 should trade in double to triple the present price of 70cts i.e. $2.10 and $5 in 2017






Most Stirring Speech Ever By An MBA


A LAWYER AT YALE SAID THAT IF YOU WANTED TO CHANGE THE WORLD IN THE 21ST CENTURY GET AN MBA

It’s rare that a commencement address rises above the ordinary, a nice got-to-have speech filled with cliches about fulfilling one’s promise. It’s even rarer that a graduating student shows up the official invited speaker at a commencement to deliver a highly memorable and rousing oration. 
But it happened last month at Harvard Business School when one of the some 900 graduating MBAs stepped behind the podium and before the microphone.
With surprising poise and self-confidence, Casey Gerald rose to the occasion, giving the most inspiring and stirring speech we have ever seen given by a graduating MBA. 
His 17-minute Clintonesque exhortation–without notes–to fellow students and their families even overshadowed Khan Academy Founder Salman Khan who returned to HBS to deliver the official address to the Class of 2014 at the annual pre-commencement Class Day ceremony.
Gerald spoke movingly about a near-death experience with armed gunmen in his hometown of Dallas, and how that changed his life forever. “A strange thing happened as I accepted that I was about to die: I stopped being afraid.” He then decided to “give my life to a cause greater than myself.”
A LAWYER AT YALE SAID THAT IF YOU WANTED TO CHANGE THE WORLD IN THE 21ST CENTURY GET AN MBA
Initially convinced he would become a lawyer, a summer internship within a law firm “quickly disabused me of the idea.” Investment banking came next as an intern at Lehman Brothers in the summers of 2007 and 2008. He got an inside view of the firm’s dramatic collapse. “It’s the story of my generation,” Casey says. “No one thought an institution like that would come tumbling down. But we all saw how fragile and vulnerable any institution can be.”
While at Yale, Casey attended a law school event at which the speaker made an observation that had a lasting impact upon him. “He said law was the instrument of social change in the twentieth century,” Casey explains, “but if you want to change the world in the twenty-first century, get an MBA.” Casey applied, and was accepted into, HBS’ deferred admission 2+2 program, using the two years of work experience to explore options in both social policy and business. He worked for  the Center for American Progress, the Cities of Service Coalition, and Reboot, “a design-based approach to innovation in the public sector,” and the latter through Neiman Marcus, where he worked on the president’s five-year strategic plan.
After arriving at Harvard Business School from Yale, Gerald said that HBS “changed who we were; it reminded us who we could be. It reminded us that we didn’t have to wait until we were rich or powerful, or until we actually knew finance, to make a difference. We could act right now.”
ON THE FRONT LINES OF CHANGE
With three classmates, Casey founded a non-profit, MBAs Across America, which is a movement of MBAs and entrepreneurs working together to revitalize America. “We saw the signs for hope in entrepreneurs who were on the front lines of change. They showed us that the new ‘bottom line’ in business is the impact you have on your community and the world around you — that no amount of profit could make up for purpose.”
Last summer, Gerald set out on an 8,000-mile journey across the country with three other classmates to talk to people in “nooks and crannies, and the unbeaten paths,” to discover the interconnectedness of people’s lives, dreams, and aspirations.
The conclusion of his speech was a remarkable exhortation to his classmates, leaving little doubt that Gerald has at least the potential to become the next Obama.
‘IF ALL WE LEARNED WERE THE FOUR Ps AND FIVE FORCES WE WILL LABOR UNDER A CURSE’
“After all the miles and the memories of the last two years, now I see the biggest sign of hope: You, my friends, my fellow graduates, not because of what we have done, but because I know we have more work to do. In your hands as well as mine lies the hope for a new generation of business leaders in which each of us becomes a pioneer, in which each of us commits our time and talent not just to the treasures of today, but to the frontier of tomorrow where new dreams and new hopes and new possibilities are waiting.
“As we leave this place for the last time, some as Baker Scholars and some by the seat of our pants, we take up the work of not just making a living but of making a life. For if all we have learned here are Four Ps, and Five Forces and Six Sigma, we will prove William Faulkner right, that we labor under a curse, that we live not for love but for lust, for defeats in which nobody loses anything of value, for victories without hope, and worst of all without pity or compassion, that our griefs grieve on no universal bones, leaving no scars, that we live not from the heart but from the glands.
“No, my friends, we have more work to do, hard work, frightening work, uncertain work and unending work, work that may test us, work that may defeat us, work for which we may not get the credit but work for which the whole world depends. The time is short and the odds are long but I believe that we are ready nonetheless, with the love of those who raised us, with the lessons of those who taught us, with the strength of those who stand beside us as we face what lies ahead. I say let us begin.”


Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Can NIHD Stock Rebound?


 The 3rd stock I like is NII or NIHD, a provider of digital wireless communications services. The stock has hit a low of US$0.60



Why I like the stock:

1)  the 3rd largest operator of the Nextel brand in Brazil, an emerging country with huge potential. Remember Singtel share price was at $1 before the increase of 1.5 million population. The share price has since increase by about 250%

2) This industry has a high barrier to entry as it require huge investment and a high burn up rate of operation cost. It calls for capable management The CEO is from Stanford and Cornell university and I believe in his capability in moving the company forward.

3) NII Holdings has Agreement with Apple to Bring iPhone to its Nextel Brazil Operations

4)  This stock is 28% short some 41 millions shares at least not including the naked shorts probably more like 50% short my guess.

5) Many big institutions are still holding their shares or bought more such as Blackrock

6) nihd complete infrastructure that's up and running 

7) they are a proven company with income of approx. 5b

8) they have laid future plans by negotiating deals with well known companies like telefonica,apple,etc. 

9) they have taken cost restraints to limited loses and improve liquidity 

10) they foreign currency advantage which translates into more revenue going forward 

11) they have worked and now see the result of new telecom laws coming into play that will guarantee them more share of their market which means revenue revenue & more revenue 

12) they have ""re-installed/brought back"" the same ceo who bought them to historical heights and who is very well known and respected in the telecom field..this is why the largest companies in the world hold nihd stock.

The Risk:

1) Though they have ample working capital of $2.4-2.7 billion in the bank, is considering options to meet financial obligations and fund the business in 2015 and after. 

2) "Anaylst rate NII HOLDINGS INC (NIHD) a SELL. The company's weaknesses can be seen in multiple areas, such as its feeble growth in its earnings per share, deteriorating net income, disappointing return on equity, weak operating cash flow and generally high debt management risk."

Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows:

§  NII HOLDINGS INC has experienced a steep decline in earnings per share in the most recent quarter in comparison to its performance from the same quarter a year ago. Earnings per share have declined over the last two years. We anticipate that this should continue in the coming year. During the past fiscal year, NII HOLDINGS INC swung to a loss, reporting -$4.15 versus $1.31 in the prior year. For the next year, the market is expecting a contraction of 49.6% in earnings (-$6.21 versus -$4.15).
§  Return on equity has greatly decreased when compared to its ROE from the same quarter one year prior. This is a signal of major weakness within the corporation. Compared to other companies in the Wireless Telecommunication Services industry and the overall market, NII HOLDINGS INC's return on equity significantly trails that of both the industry average and the S&P 500.
§  Net operating cash flow has significantly decreased to -$62.41 million or 156.91% when compared to the same quarter last year. In addition, when comparing to the industry average, the firm's growth rate is much lower.
§  Despite any intermediate fluctuations, we have only bad news to report on this stock's performance over the last year: it has tumbled by 76.49%,  the company's earnings per share are down 372.22% compared to the year-earlier quarter. Naturally, the overall market trend is bound to be a significant factor.  
Conclusion:

The risk reward is favourable considering the stock is still worth at least US$1 Buying at this low price, the return can be astronomical and loss manageable.


Can BlackBerry’s Stock Rebound?


The 2nd stock that had fallen about 80% is Blackberry The share price had fallen to US$5,40in December 2013 I bought in at US$6.75 and sold at US$11.75 a neat 80% profit within a month. I would buy back again when the share price retrace back to US$6 again.

Blackberry is akin to brand like Mercedes. Like Nokia I see value just in its name, Blackberry. They also have brought in a Hongkong CEO whom I believe has the precision in bringing the company to health.

Moreover, BlackBerry is a designer, manufacturer, and marketer of wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market. Through the development of integrated hardware, software, and services, it provides platforms and solutions for seamless access to information such as email, voice, instant messaging, SMS, Internet, intranet-based applications, and browsing. Its products and services feature the BlackBerry
wireless solution, the Research In Motion Wireless Handheld product line, the BlackBerry PlayBook tablet, software development tools, and other software and hardware.

The stock is currently pulling back and may need time to consolidate. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, BlackBerry is trading below its rising key averages which signal neutral to bearish price action in the near-term

BBRY

Conclusion

BlackBerry provides innovative wireless communication products to consumers and companies worldwide. The company is selling off the majority of its real estate holdings in Canada to the U.S.-based Spear Street Capital for around $278 million. The stock has struggled to make positive progress and is currently pulling back. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been rising while revenues have been decreasing, which has produced conflicting feelings among investors. Relative to its peers and sector, BlackBerry has been a poor relative year-to-date performer. WAIT AND SEE what BlackBerry does this quarter.




Can Nokia Stock rebound?

I like stocks that have dropped 50-90% One stock is NOK It had dropped to US$1.70 on July 2012 and have since rebounded after news of Microsoft buy over the company. I bought at $4.50 and sold at US$6.50 a neat 50% gain in 3 months.

I bought the shares because Nokia, being the former bellwether of the industry, lost its dominant position in the smartphone market when its Symbian operating system failed to keep up with the likes of Apple and handsets using Google's Android software. 

Therefore I reckoned the company is worth some value due to its 2nd position in the phone maker market and that a white knight would come in to rescue.

True enough, shortly after Microsoft came in to buy over Nokia. The company had also hoped to remedy that by teaming up with Microsoft, launching several Lumia phones based on the Windows operating system.


Despite the bad quarterly figures, Mawston said Nokia still remains the No. 2 phone maker worldwide.
"They are still a major player in the market. There is still an opportunity for recovery there. It only takes one killer device to rebound in this fast-moving market and they can be back in the game," he said.
"Nokia is struggling but it can rebound."
The company is also being squeezed in the low-end "feature phone" market by Asian manufacturers making cheaper phones, such as China's ZTE.
Analysts say the company still has a long way to go to boost its smartphone market share.
I had forseen that the going will be tough in the phone market with Blackberry seemingly suffering the same fate. I had since switched out of Nokia into Blackberry