Saturday, November 29, 2014

I bet on a stock market crash in 2016 and ending of great prosperity in 2015

Many aren't aware that the economy has taken a nose-dive since 2013. The economy will not do better this year and next year
Many are saying the US economy will improve in 2014. "But the Fed does not help the economy nor Europe solves their banking woes since the Great Recession.

My prediction is based on Federal Reserve ending its quantitative easing end 2014. That would be the removal of artificial life support for the economy. The Fed's stimulus had created huge inflation in the stock, commodity and property market, which would have to deflate when all the free money ended. It is no brainer that you see the oil prices came crushing down immediately after QE ended.

There are many reason for the global economic deterioration :
1) problems with Russia and Ukraine, which I said last spring would turn into a sanctions war that would damage Europe and to a lesser extent the U.S. because Russia would not back down on Crimea; 
2) China's economy would continue to settle, creating a dead weight on the global economy
3) Japan entering into recession 
3) Ebola  -the fear of it is enough to unsettle the economy
 
While the stock market is soaring to new heights, Tech stocks in particular were looking like similar to the pre dot-com crash in 2001. 

The investment banks are the biggest players in the market; so, if the market crashes, it could also take down some banks, turning into something much worse than just a bear market.   

Singapore is not immune to the economic collapse espicially our banks are highly geared in mortgage and business loans.  

2015 will probably be that last year of great prosperity for the western world including Singapore, China. A season of great darkness to mushroom into worldwide devastation probably sometime after 2015.
Many will see a culminating explosion of darkness taking place soon possibly by the fall of 2016.
Be pre warned my friends

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

A 27-year-old millionaire reveals how he built his wealth

Anton Ivanov makes his money from taking smart risk in investing in mutual fund stocks and property
He also did not take loan nor scholarship to study Instead he works first, then study. He was also working to earn some money while in high school and doing freelancing work to earn extra money.

Can our kids today emulate this type of independent self reliance self starter kids Parents in Singapore spoil their kids by spoon feeding and giving too much that they become a liability in society.
One classic example is our highest paid government in the world coupled with a too big force of civil servants that are less productive. They have a self deserving self demanding altitude instead of listening and doing things for the larger good of citizen which they are called to do.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/27-year-old-millionaire-anton-ivanov-financessful-184823184.html

Anton Ivanov isn’t your average millionaire.
For starters, he’s barely 27 years old, he doesn’t work in Silicon Valley and he isn’t heir to a family fortune. He doesn’t live in a tiny house or get his food from a compost garden in his backyard, either.
Ivanov, who shares wealth-building tips on his blog, Financessful.com, made his million the old-fashioned way: He read books. He saved early and often. And he started planning his rise to millionaire status before most kids his age had their driver’s license.
“I’m a testament that if you want something bad enough and you keep working towards it ... you will get to where you want to go,” he says. "It was my habits and my principles that made me rich." 
Here’s how he did it.
Starting young
A decade ago, Ivanov was like any other teenager in the U.S.. He went to high school, earned decent grades, and held down a minimum-wage job at Subway. His parents, who had moved his family from their native Russia in 2002, both worked full time — his mother as an attorney, his father as an accountant. They lived a moderately middle-class life in the suburbs of San Diego.
But Ivanov realized early on that there was something different about his new neighbors — they all seemed a lot wealthier than his family. His parents were heavy spenders and harbored a deep mistrust of financial services. He couldn’t quite blame them — they had moved to the U.S. just a few years after living through one of the worst depressions in Russian history. But at the same time, he felt like he was missing something.
“In high school, there was pretty much no financial education and my parents wouldn’t talk to me about money,” he says. “Everything I learned about money I had to learn myself.”
He devoured books on wealth building. An early favorite was “Think and Grow Rich,” the 1937 classic by Napoleon Hill, which details strategies that can be used to overcome psychological barriers to wealth.
“That book was extremely influential,” Ivanov says. “It wasn’t a ‘how to get rich’ book but it gave me a vision and a mental system that I could use to achieve pretty much anything I wanted.”
At age 16, he had one goal in mind: become a millionaire.
College or career?


Anton opened a savings account at a local bank and socked away 100% of his Subway wages over the course of three years. By the time he graduated high school, he had saved about $10,000. He might have used the cash to cover part of his college tuition, but he knew it wouldn’t be enough to cover all of his expenses. He didn’t relish the thought of taking on tens of thousands of dollars in student loans to make up the difference, either.
"My family wasn't really prepared to pay for my college tuition, so I knew I would have to rely on at least some student loans to get me through, which I was very much against,” he says.
He had other ideas for kickstarting his career. While his friends signed up for college classes, Ivanov celebrated his 18th birthday by opening his first Roth IRA. After spending some time working (mostly administrative jobs near home), he decided to enlist in the U.S. Navy at age 20. He earned about $55,000 a year as an electronics technician and took distance learning classes to earn a Bachelor’s degree in information technology and programming. Uncle Sam picked up the tab for his tuition and fees.  
“When I compared [going to college] to joining the military, the latter seemed like a smarter idea because I would be earning income right away instead of waiting until I graduated,” he says. “And I could receive an education pretty much completely free, which I did.”
The ‘lazy’ investor
After Ivanov maxed out his Roth IRA (the annual contribution limit is $5,500), he opened up a small brokerage account with TradeKing. Years of careful research convinced him stock-picking wasn’t for him. His investing strategy was simple: focus on low-cost stock mutual funds that covered a variety of major asset classes and let the market do its job.
“It’s what I would call a lazy portfolio,” he says. After doing research, Ivanov decided to invest in seven asset classes: domestic, large-, mid-, and small-cap funds, emerging market funds, commodity funds, with a small chunk in bonds. Then he let it ride. He rebalances his portfolio once a year, if at all.  
A couple of years into his stint with the Navy, Ivanov faced his first true test as an amateur investor. By saving 60% of his Navy income and taking on freelance jobs on the side, he had been investing somewhere between $40,000 to $45,000 per year when the financial crisis hit in 2008.
He says he lost “a good amount,” but when the market sank he didn’t sell like many other investors did. “I powered through and when the market hit bottom, that’s when I tried to save and invest even more. To me, it was a no brainer,” he says.
Getting into the real estate game
Heavily influenced by books like “The Millionaire Real Estate Investor” and “The Millionaire Next Door,” Ivanov knew he wanted to start investing in real estate. His timing couldn’t have been better. The bust had essentially turned the housing market into the world’s biggest bargain bin.
In 2009, Ivanov put down $80,000 on a $400,000 condominium in San Diego, which he rents out for a $36,000 a year (he nets about $12,000 a year after making his mortgage payments). Today he estimates the property’s value is well over $600,000.  
Since then, Ivanov has added another property to his nascent housing empire. He purchased a $430,000 duplex earlier this year. He collects $21,000 a year in rent ($12,000 net after his mortgage is covered) renting out one of the apartments, while he and his fiancee live in the other.
“I believe in taking smart risks,” he says. “If you see an opportunity and you think it’s a good opportunity, you should take it and understand that you may be wrong and understand what the repercussions may be.”
He hopes to own at least 10 properties by the time he hits his 40s, but he’s in no rush. Once his housing expenses are taken care of, he puts all of his income — from his rental properties, his job and his freelance work — first into his retirement account, emergency savings account, and then into his taxable brokerage account. Once those goals are met, he contributes to a separate high-yield savings account, which he sets aside for future real estate purchases. You can see a full breakdown of Invanov's assets here, or check out the graphic below. 
Keeping it simple
Committing to saving 60% of his income was no small feat for Ivanov. The average American manages to save only than 5% of their income per year.
He swears by one basic savings strategy: automate everything and never rely on credit. 
“The day my salary gets deposited, I don’t even see that money,” he says. “It’s in and out of my account, which keeps me honest and keeps me on track.”
The emergency fund he’s been carefully maintaining since his days at Subway has come in handy as well. When both his parents unexpectedly passed away a few years ago, he was able to rely on that money to cover his airfare and funeral expenses. 
Fortunately, military life was the perfect environment for a single person looking to save. The bulk of his fixed expenses — housing, food, transportation, insurance — were covered. He set up automatic transfers for his savings and investment accounts and followed a strict schedule. First, he maxed out his annual Roth IRA contribution. Then he contributed the maximum to his annual Thrift Savings Plan (the federal employee version of the 401(k)). He split the remaining balance between his brokerage account and the savings fund he keeps for future real estate investments.
While he studied, he earned extra cash through one-off web design and programming gigs he got through freelance job websites like elance.com and odesk.com. He estimates these side jobs added another $15,000 to $20,000 to his annual income.
“Definitely being in the military helped a lot, but I also had a mature outlook on life,” he says. “Buying expensive things isn’t really fun for me. I realized those things don’t really make me happy.”
Reaching the $1 million mark
Ivanov left the Navy in 2013, but even after he moved back to San Diego, he kept up his frugal lifestyle. Eager to add to his investments, he made increasing his income a top priority and landed a full-time job working as a software developer and test engineer. Combined with the freelance work he continues in his free time, he earns just shy of $100,000 a year (not including income form his rental properties) and still saves at least half of his net income. 
Every expense — from his gym membership to his pending wedding in 2016 — is planned for and saved for well in advance. His detailed planning regimen is, he says, the key to his success so far.
“Usually, at the beginning of the year I look at my life for the next two to five years and I plan it out,” he says. “I write out any expense I’ll have that I won’t be able to cover using my paycheck and figure out how much I need to save each month to meet those goals by my deadline.”
Ivanov crossed the $1 million net worth mark just two months shy of his 27th birthday in June this year. He was thrilled to finally reach this milestone — but not surprised.  
If you have a really strong desire in your head, you can power through any obstacle you may face,” he says. “I truly believed that when I was 16 and I believe it now.








Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Wall Street Traders Go All In For Poker

Dec. 7, 2009





As poker stars go, Burt Boutin isn't the best known. Still, the player nicknamed "Red Bull Burt" has won more than $2 million in World Series of Poker tournaments and has been a regular face on ESPN's featured tables.
Although it's not like this full-time Las Vegas resident doesn't have a regular job. He does: Professional money manager.
Boutin could, if he chose to, trade slow days tracking S&P blue chips in exchange for fast nights amassing chips at the tables. But he's not giving up his day job.
"I get burned out playing poker," Boutin, 42, admits. "It gets old – but the stock market is constantly challenging me."
In recent years, the financial industry and high-stakes professional poker realms have been increasingly intersecting, with a number of Wall Street figures crossing over into the WSOP scene. Online poker's popularity, meanwhile, has exploded into a $10 billion-plus industry despite government measures to curb Internet gambling.
Poker playing may well be today what day trading was in the 1990s. On any given day, at any given moment, hundreds of thousands of players are glued to their computer screens competing on virtual tables. "PokerStars" and "Full Tilt" are two of the more popular sites featuring more than 60,000 combined games between them that run nonstop and cost between $10 and $200 to buy into.
Online poker is extremely popular among Wall Street types.
"Poker is a trader's game," says Scott Redler, cofounder of T3, a Manhattan-based day trading firm. "Roulette, blackjack, those are based more on luck. But with a game like No Limit Texas Hold 'Em, you need patience and discipline, or in other words the exact same skills needed to be a good trader."
Boutin, a Philadelphia native, started out as a stock broker in the 1990s and made his way to the Las Vegas poker circuit in 2001.
"He's a sharp guy and a good card player but it was surprising to see how quickly he made it into the upper echelon of that world," says Burt's younger brother, Clinton Boutin, a financial consultant based in New York City.
The older Boutin began to snag some coveted WSOP event bracelets (awarded to winners of the many various poker tournament events that are affiliated with the WSOP beyond the signature $10,000 No-Limit Texas Hold 'Em Main Event) right around the time national interest in poker, in particular Texas Hold 'Em, began to surge.
The popularity of the 1998 movie "Rounders" coupled with ESPN's decision a few years later to regularly televise Vegas poker beyond the annual WSOP Main Event, transformed the game from smoky back rooms to a worldwide phenomenon.
Along the way, celebrity players, such as Johnny Chan, became household names. Chris Moneymaker, an online player, won the main WSOP event championship in 2003, giving hope to regular guys on home computer players everywhere.
"It's just gotten unbelievably competitive," Boutin says of the professional Vegas poker scene.
An exploding poker scene has created a whole new subculture in Vegas and in turn helped grow Boutin's other enterprise, managing money. His firm, Securities Services, has around $50 million in assets under advisory on behalf of some high-net worth clients, including several professional card players. Boutin, who employs three other financial reps besides himself, has a value-oriented trading style, leaning toward distressed companies coming out of bankruptcy.
Lately, he's had a lot of those to choose from. Boutin also says that during the worst period of the 2008 financial meltdown he was making money hand over fist shorting financials.
"Both pursuits are about calculating risk," Boutin says. "But playing poker professionally can be exhausting – sometimes you just go and go all night. It takes a toll." (He's known for gulping Red Bull -- hence his moniker).
The skill sets of a trader or portfolio manager match up well with those required to compete in poker – a penchant for risk taking and a dispassionate regard for large sums of money.
A New York City securities industry recruiting firm, The Options Group, recently was asked by an unnamed hedge fund to find candidates proficient at online poker, no financial experience needed. Daytrading titan Steve Schonfeld is also known to consider card playing savvy when evaluating new trading candidates.
In general, money managers have tended to distance what it is they do from gambling, insisting that stock selection is far less a crap shoot than, say, shooting craps. This is particularly so, it is widely believed in the industry, if there's some form of a research-driven edge.
It's recognized even among gamblers that only a small percentage of them can consistently turn a profit. However, poker enthusiasts can be sensitive to perceptions that chance more than skill underpins what they do. And as the M.I.T. students featured in Ben Mezrich's book "Bringing Down the House" showed, there is an edge to be had at some games when a little intellectual firepower is brought to bear.
A Wall Street background can be an edge in the high-stakes poker circles.
Steven Begleiter, a Bear Stearns trader prior to the firm's demise, pulled down $1.6 million earlier this year when he finished in sixth place in the main WSOP event. Hedge fund heavyweight David Einhorn, who famously shorted Lehman Brothers into oblivion last summer, finished 18th in 2006. Aaron Brown, who works as a risk manager at mammoth Greenwich, Connecticut hedge fund AQR, was a former professional poker player.
"If you love trading, if you are good at it, then odds are you also love poker," says one Wall Street trader who enjoys playing in live games. "In the same way, if some young kid proves themselves really adept at playing poker online where it has become so competitive then chances are he might be well suited for becoming a trader."
In New York City, there's an unofficial Wall Street poker circuit, an ongoing series of semi regular games held almost every night of the week attended mainly by bank and hedge fund traders.
Taking risk and assessing information quickly are elements of both trading and poker playing. Before a trader moves on a stock he might have to weigh the last trade, insider purchases or sale, a rumor on the Street, a news story, and so on within minutes or seconds. A skilled card player, similarly, looks at the odds of his hand being the winner, his opponents' prior hands and actions, his last bet and the look on an opponent's face.
Of course, playing online, where reading a face is impossible, requires a distinctly different approach, says one online poker enthusiast.
"Playing online poker is all about paying attention to the betting patterns of the people you are playing, and you get to know them by their alias," says Lee, a 42-year-old Manhattan real estate agent.
Having worked as a Catskills cabana boy growing up, Lee was around poker from a young age. But in 2004 Lee says he began to play nightly and on weekends to supplement his income (and because, he admits, is hooked). While he doesn't consider himself a pro he does view poker as a "part time job," and claims to pull down, in a good month, $3,000, with his worst month ever costing him $500.
Lee says he plays on PokerStars, mainly at $50 tables, accruing enough to buy into the nightly $100,000 tournament that carries a $162 buy in. Lee has played in PokerStars' weekly "Sunday Million" Sunday night game, once placing 200th out of around 8,000 people.
"Online poker is something anyone can do so it has become super, super competitive," one trader explains. "Trading is harder to break into. Anyone with a computer can get into online poker."
Says Boutin, "The way to get good at poker is just to play, constantly."
And to be a good money manager?
"You have to be able to take risk."